ECONOMETRIC MODELING OF LVIV REGION INNOVATIVE DEVELOPMENT
Introduction The region as a social and economic system is a complex system and has many specific features. For management of this kind of systems, it is necessary to estimate correctly processes which take in it and interpret them correctly to develop effective decisions.
Methods. One of the most important elements of regional development is innovative development. Management efficiency directly depends on the quality of the forecast of the region innovative development. That’s why it is so important to use corresponding mathematical methods for forecasting.
Results. First of all, we investigated which factors innovative regional development depends on. Then the simultaneous econometric model of five equations with five endogenous variables and eight exogenous variables is proposed for Lviv region innovative development forecasting. The first equation describes dynamics of the volume of the performed scientific works. The second equation explains the dependence of the number of workers who performed these works from the volume of the performed scientific works, the number of employed and implemented new technological processes. The third equation investigates the quantities of the mastered innovative types of production. The fourth equation describes dynamics of the volume of the realized innovative production. And the last equation of the system of simultaneous equations explains dynamics of the gross regional product. The reduced form of the model was built. All equations are overidentified except the third one (which is exactly identified), that’s why the two-stage least squares method was chosen for estimation the consistent coefficients. The model was realized on data of Lviv region for a period from 2000 to 2014 (data from Main Statistical Office in Lviv Region official site).
Conclusion. The simultaneous econometric model of Lviv region innovative development is correct, adequately reflects interrelations between variables, can predict the crisis effects in an economy and can be used for forecasting of innovative development.
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