THEORETICAL AND METHODOLOGICAL PRINCIPLES OF STUDYING THE DYNAMICS OF WORLD MIGRATION PROCESSES IN THE CONDITIONS OF GLOBALIZATION
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Abstract
Introduction. International migration plays a significant role in the socio-economic development of countries in globalization. The urgency of the study of migration processes is for the rapid growth of their volume, intensity, spread to all countries of the world, a significant impact on the economic and social development of countries. A consistent and timely study of the structure of labor migration is crucial for assessing current and future migration trends, determining migration policy priorities, and making informed decisions.
Purpose. The research aims at studying structural changes in the international labor movement in globalization.
Results. The study analyzes the structural changes in the international labor movement in globalization. The volumes of labor migration and the average annual growth rate in groups of countries in 1990-2019 are determined according to the goals of sustainable development. We make the migration forecast for 2025 and 2030 using statistical indicators of dynamics. The directions of labor migration between groups of countries are identified and we identify the 10 largest regional migration corridors in 2019. The share of migrants from the total population by groups of countries in 1990-2019 is calculated. A correlation-regression model is built to reflect the volume and directions of migration to the largest recipient countries of labor in 2019, depending on selected factors: GDP per capita, inflation, unemployment, and personal income taxes.
Originality. The practical significance of the work is that the results of modeling the labor migration process and the factors that affect it, improve the quality of monitoring of migration processes, identify trends, and effectively manage labor flows.
Conclusion. International labor migration is growing and diversifying its volume, intensity, and importance for the social and economic development of individual states and the world is constantly growing in globalization. Because of correlation-regression analysis of the volume of migration to the largest recipient countries of labor in 2019, it established its dependence on the following factors: GDP per capita, inflation, unemployment, and personal income tax. Confirmation of the expediency of using this method is the result, according to which the greatest impact on the volume of migration, among the aim factors, is caused by GDP per capita in the recipient country. A further area of research may be to identify several subjective factors that also significantly influence individuals’ decisions about their migration. We will use other methods of economic and mathematical modeling for the analysis of migration processes in the world economy, including fuzzy logic and cluster analysis.
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