ECONOMETRIC MODELING OF LVIV REGION INNOVATIVE DEVELOPMENT
Main Article Content
Abstract
Introduction The region as a social and economic system is a complex system and has many specific features. For management of this kind of systems, it is necessary to estimate correctly processes which take in it and interpret them correctly to develop effective decisions.
Methods. One of the most important elements of regional development is innovative development. Management efficiency directly depends on the quality of the forecast of the region innovative development. That’s why it is so important to use corresponding mathematical methods for forecasting.
Results. First of all, we investigated which factors innovative regional development depends on. Then the simultaneous econometric model of five equations with five endogenous variables and eight exogenous variables is proposed for Lviv region innovative development forecasting. The first equation describes dynamics of the volume of the performed scientific works. The second equation explains the dependence of the number of workers who performed these works from the volume of the performed scientific works, the number of employed and implemented new technological processes. The third equation investigates the quantities of the mastered innovative types of production. The fourth equation describes dynamics of the volume of the realized innovative production. And the last equation of the system of simultaneous equations explains dynamics of the gross regional product. The reduced form of the model was built. All equations are overidentified except the third one (which is exactly identified), that’s why the two-stage least squares method was chosen for estimation the consistent coefficients. The model was realized on data of Lviv region for a period from 2000 to 2014 (data from Main Statistical Office in Lviv Region official site).
Conclusion. The simultaneous econometric model of Lviv region innovative development is correct, adequately reflects interrelations between variables, can predict the crisis effects in an economy and can be used for forecasting of innovative development.
Article Details
The authors published in this journal agree with following conditions:
1. The authors reserve to themselves the right to the authorship of their works and transfer the right of their first publication to the journal on the terms of Creatіve Common Attrіbutіon Lіcense which allows to freely extend to other persons the published work with an obligatory reference to the authors of the original work and its first publication in this journal.
2. The authors have the right to complete independent additional agreements concerning the not exclusive distribution of their work in the form in which it was published in this journal (for example, to place the work in the electronic storehouse of an establishment or to publish as a monograph component), under the condition of the preservation of the reference to the first publication of the work in this journal.
3. The journal’s policy allows and encourage the authors to place their manuscripts into the Internet (for example, in depositories of establishments or on personal web-sites) either before submitting of the manuscript for publication or during its editorial processing as it assists the occurrence of a productive scientific discussion and positively affects the efficiency and dynamics of citing of the published work.
AGREEMENT
ABOUT TRANSMISSION OF COPYRIGHT
I, the author of the article / We, the authors of the manuscript _______________________________________________________________________
in case of its acceptance for publication, we transfer the following rights to the founders and editorial boards of the scientific publication "BULLETIN OF THE CHERKASY BOHDAN KHMELNYTSKY NATIONAL UNIVERSITY. ECONOMIC SCIENCES. SERIES "ECONOMIC SCIENCES":
1. Publication of this article in Ukrainian (English, Russian, Polish) and distribution of its printed version.
2. Dissemination of the electronic version of the article through any electronic means (placing on the official journal web site, in electronic databases, repositories, etc.).
At the same time we reserve the right without consent of the editorial board and the founders:
1. Use the materials of the article in whole or in part for educational purposes.
2. To use the materials of the article in whole or in part for writing your own theses.
3. Use article materials to prepare abstracts, conference reports, and oral presentations.
4. Post electronic copies of the article (including the final electronic version downloaded from the journal's official website) to:
a. personal web-pecypcax of all authors (web sites, web pages, blogs, etc.);
b. web-pecypcax of the institutions where the authors work (including electronic institutional repositories);
with. non-profit, open-source web-pecypcax (such as arXiv.org).
With this agreement, we also certify that the submitted manuscript meets the following criteria:
1. Does not contain calls for violence, incitement of racial or ethnic enmity, which are disturbing, threatening, shameful, libelous, cruel, indecent, vulgar, etc.
2. Does not infringe the copyrights and intellectual property rights of others or organizations; contains all the references to the cited authors and / or publications envisaged by applicable copyright law, as well as the results and facts used in the article by other authors or organizations.
3. It has not been previously published in other publishers and has not been published in other publications.
4. Does not include materials that are not subject to publication in the open press, in accordance with applicable law.
____________________ ___________________
First name, Last name, signature of the author
"___" __________ 20__
References
Morgan, K. (2007). The learning region: institutions, innovation and regional renewal. Regional studies, 41(S1), 147-159.
Gertler, M. S. (1995). "Being there": Proximity, organization, and culture in the development and adoption of advanced manufacturing technologies. Economic geography, 1-26.
Moulaert, F., & Sekia, F. (2003). Territorial innovation models: a critical survey. Regional studies, 37(3), 289-302.
Lee, S. Y., Florida, R., & Acs, Z. (2004). Creativity and entrepreneurship: A regional analysis of new firm formation. Regional studies, 38(8), 879-891.
Malecki, E. J. (2012). Regional social capital: why it matters. Regional Studies, 46(8), 1023-1039.
Rodríguez-Pose, A., & Crescenzi, R. (2008). Research and development, spillovers, innovation systems, and the genesis of regional growth in Europe. Regional studies, 42(1), 51-67.
Andersson, G. (2013). Rethinking regional innovation. Systemic Practice and Action Research, 26(1), 99-110.
Wooldridge, J. (2015). Introductory econometrics: A modern approach. Nelson Education.
Raymond, W., Mairesse, J., Mohnen, P., & Palm, F. (2015). Dynamic models of R & D, innovation and productivity: Panel data evidence for Dutch and French manufacturing. European Economic Review, 78, 285-306.
Main Statistical Office in Lviv Region. Acssess mode: www.lv.ukrstat.gov.ua