ANALYSIS OF MODELS AND FEATURES OF GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS OF THE TWENTIETH CENTURY

L. O. KIBALNYK

Анотація


Introduction. In the conditions of financial globalization the impact of the global financial crisis on the stability of economic development of countries increases greatly. World practice shows the reduction of time intervals and the increase of the amplitude of the crisis fluctuations. As a consequence, the urgency of developments concerning the determination of the causes, prognostics, ways to prevent, neutralize or minimize the negative effects of the global financial crises increases. Purpose. The purpose of the article is to define the features of the world financial crises spreading in the 20th century based on the analysis of their models. Methods. During the solving of assigned tasks different scientific and special methods of investigation were used, including logical-historical method (to explain the reasons and patterns of world financial crises); comparative analysis (to determine the time limits and features of financial crises of the 20th century), graph theory (to develop models of agents’ actions). Results. Based on the theory of the existence of logperiodic structures that accompany the development of the system in time it was proved that the market has the foreboding of the collapse on a thin, self-organized cooperative level. This leads to the appearance of prints or traces (notable for prices of stock indexes) that precede the collapse. Therefore, market prices carry information about the collapse. The results of the research show the existence of the "ineffective market" hypothesis, according to which the market prices contain not only public information, but more sophisticated information formed by the global market as well. Originality. On the basis of the D. Sornette model and its adaptation to the 2008-2009 crisis parameters the indicators of the increase of the pre-crisis state of the economy of any country were marked out. The results showed the intensification of fluctuations in stock markets indicators (indexes) as they approach to the point of collapse, as well as inertial fluctuations for about two years after the crisis. This confirms the thesis about the adequacy of the use of modeling tools and the dependence of the obtained results from the time scales used in the creation of models. Conclusions. It was proven that in the conditions of globalization and the acquisition of the systematic character by crises, the possibility of forecasting a period of time required for the countries to restore their economies, its restructuring and recovery, are complicated. Moreover, structural changes in the economies of many countries and the transformation of relation types between the countries, which occur as a result of such crises, are so substantial and meaningful that in time they may lead to a new world order.

Ключові слова


financial collapse; time thresholds; agents; indexes; traders; models of behavior

Посилання


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