THEORETICAL AND PRACTICAL APPROACHES TO MODELING WORLD EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES IN THE CONDITIONS OF GEOECONOMIC TRANSFORMATIONS
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Abstract
Introduction. Due to the deepening processes of globalization of the world economy, there are quantitative and qualitative transformations taking place in international economic relations between countries. Changes in connections in the world market for goods and services, as one of the largest in scale and power, reflect the general trends of geoeconomic transformations. Analysis of these transformations allows us to understand their causes, main trends and consequences.
Purpose. The purpose of the article is to model world exports of goods and services in the context of geoeconomic transformations with the use of cluster analysis.
Methods. General scientific methods of analysis and synthesis, comparison, classification, system analysis, etc. were used in the paper. Special methods that were applied include the methods of cluster analysis: the single linkage method and Ward’s method. The results were visualized in the form of hierarchical trees.
Results. Using cluster analysis methods, international trade relations were modeled in the context of geoeconomic transformations in the field of world exports of goods and services. The analysis is based on the value of export transactions of seventy-five countries in six regions for the period from 2005 to 2019, which was divided into three time intervals. The results confirm the existence of transformations in trade relations between the countries. In particular, when modeling the export of goods, changes occurred in the first two time intervals. It was found that during the first period the following three clusters were formed: European, South American and a cluster that is formed by a number of countries in Europe, North America and Asia. The results of modeling in the second time period show the reduction and isolation of the European region and the formation of a large cluster, which included countries of the Asian and American regions. This trend continued in the future. In the process of modeling the export of services, significant transformations were revealed in the first and third time intervals. Initially, the European cluster was absent, as most European countries were members of other clusters, the Asian cluster in particular. However, in the third period, not only Asian, but also North American countries formed joint clusters with European countries. Thus, the results showed that the trends in the reformatting of trade relations between countries in exports of goods and exports of services have their own characteristics associated with the crisis, foreign trade policy and other exogenous and endogenous factors.
Originality. The application of cluster analysis for modeling international trade relations in order to identify their reformatting under the influence of various factors gives particular relevance to this problem.
Conclusion. The results of the study showed the presence of radical qualitative and quantitative changes in the export of goods and services, as one of the manifestations of the geoeconomic transformations of world space. Under the influence of various factors, these changes provoked reformatting of international trade relations between countries of different regions. The applied methods of cluster analysis reflect and confirm the presence of these changes.
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