STRATEGIC RISK MANAGEMENT AND CRISIS PREDICTION TOOLS IN CONTEMPORARY ENTERPRISE MANAGEMENT

Abstract

Introduction.  The article examines the interpretation of risk in an enterprise, highlighting the connection between risk and the concept of “uncertainty.” It is noted that risk is inevitable for any enterprise. To ensure effective management, a classification of risks is proposed based on the following criteria: the nature of activities, scale of occurrence, level of losses, types, timing of risk-related decisions, as well as identifying the types of entrepreneurial risks. The article outlines the main tasks of risk management and the functions of the risk management entity within an enterprise, including forecasting, organization, regulation, coordination, stimulation, and control, with a detailed description of each. The key stages of risk management in an enterprise are examined, and the main requirements for a risk management system are specified. The article describes how risk assessment should take place within an organization and the fundamental principles that enterprises should adhere to for effective risk management. The interrelation between risk and crisis in an enterprise is highlighted. Both the macro and micro levels of crisis are considered. The article analyzes the types of crises that may arise in organizations, including financial, operational, marketing, social, informational, personnel, technical-technological, and organizational-managerial crises. It outlines the signs of crisis phenomena by which a crisis can be identified. Additionally, a classification of crises, their causes, and the factors influencing them are proposed. The article notes that an enterprise experiencing a crisis may face two potential outcomes – overcoming the crisis or liquidation. The main prerequisites for a crisis and the most effective methods for identifying them are explored, which is crucial for ensuring the stable operation of an enterprise.

Purpose.   The main purpose of this study is to investigate the role and effectiveness of strategic risk management and crisis prediction tools in enhancing the resilience and adaptive capacity of enterprises. The paper aims to identify best practices, methodological approaches, and digital instruments that help in early detection of risks and prevention of crisis situations in organizational operations.

Results. The analysis demonstrates that modern enterprises increasingly utilize predictive analytics, artificial intelligence, scenario modeling, and early warning systems to manage strategic risks. Integration of these tools into management processes has shown a positive correlation with improved financial stability, better resource allocation, and timely strategic adjustments. Furthermore, the study identifies industry-specific risk patterns and emphasizes the importance of a tailored risk management strategy aligned with organizational goals

Originality.  The novelty of this research lies in its interdisciplinary approach, which combines elements of financial analysis, innovation management, and international strategic planning to create a holistic view of risk and crisis management. The paper proposes a conceptual model that aligns strategic risk identification with digital monitoring tools and proactive crisis forecasting, offering practical implications for managers and decision-makers.

Conclusion. Strategic risk management and effective crisis prediction are no longer optional but critical components of sustainable enterprise development. Organizations that implement advanced analytical tools and integrate risk forecasting into strategic planning are more capable of withstanding external shocks and maintaining long-term competitiveness. The study highlights the need for continuous improvement in risk culture, investment in digital capabilities, and strategic foresight in enterprise management.