ANALYSIS OF TOURISM DEVELOPMENT IN UKRAINE IN THE SYSTEM OF GEO-ECONOMICS: DETERMINATION OF POSSIBILITIES OF POST-WAR RECOVERY ON THE BASIS OF MODELING
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Abstract
The article analyzes the development of tourism in Ukraine in the context of the priorities of post-war reconstruction of Ukraine. The modeling method in the geoeconomic system is applied. Four blocks of determinants of tourism development are identified: macroeconomic (gross domestic product, inflation, exchange rate), infrastructural (transport accessibility, hotel capacity, recreational resources), institutional (visa policy, regulatory environment, international agreements), and security-related (political stability index, threat levels, insurance risks). A comprehensive analysis of the spatio-temporal patterns of the functioning of the tourism industry under wartime conditions is conducted.
Unlike existing approaches, the proposed model integrates the security factor as a key determinant of tourism development, which makes it possible to adequately capture structural shifts in the dynamics of tourist flows. The application of the principal component analysis method to aggregate correlated security indicators ensures the elimination of multicollinearity without loss of the informational content of individual factors. Analysis of the input data confirms the presence of structural shifts in the dynamics of tourism receipts associated with the geopolitical events of 2014 and 2022. A clear correlation is observed between the tourism destination security index and the volume of tourism receipts, which confirms the decisive role of the security factor within the geo-economic model of tourism. At the same time, the pandemic shock of 2020 caused an anomalous decline in indicators under relatively stable security conditions, indicating the necessity of introducing an additional dummy variable to account for exogenous shocks.
The economic interpretation of the obtained results requires consideration of the specific features of the Ukrainian tourism market. The positive impact of gross domestic product on tourism receipts reflects both the growth of effective demand among domestic tourists and an improvement in the investment climate for the development of tourism infrastructure. The impact of the exchange rate operates through two channels: the reduction in the price of tourism services for foreign visitors during national currency depreciation, and a decline in outbound tourism, which redirects demand toward the domestic market.
Problem statement. The Ukrainian tourism industry demonstrates a unique set of competitive advantages that shape the country’s strategic position in the European tourism services market and determine its growth potential under conditions of integration processes. Ukraine’s geopolitical position as a transit territory between Europe and Asia creates distinctive opportunities for the development of diverse forms of tourism and for attracting tourist flows from both continents. The territory of the state, located at the crossroads of major transport routes, has historically served as a bridge between different civilizations, which is reflected in a rich cultural and historical heritage spanning periods from the Trypillian culture to the present day.
The purpose - The purpose of the article is to develop a mathematical toolkit for modeling a scientifically grounded geo-economic model of the tourism industry.
Originality. The scientific novelty of the proposed geo-economic model lies in its comprehensive consideration of the spatio-temporal patterns of the functioning of the tourism industry under wartime conditions. Unlike existing approaches, the model integrates the security factor as a key determinant of tourism development, which enables an adequate representation of structural shifts in the dynamics of tourist flows. The application of the principal component analysis method to aggregate correlated security indicators ensures the elimination of multicollinearity without the loss of the informational content of individual factors.
Conclusion. The competitive advantages of the Ukrainian tourism product in the European market are preserved even under conditions of military hostilities; however, they require reconsideration and strengthening in the context of new security and economic realities. Price affordability of tourism services, the authenticity of cultural experiences, the uniqueness of natural landscapes, the richness of historical and cultural heritage, and the hospitality of the local population remain attractive factors for both domestic and international tourists. At the same time, security challenges, infrastructural constraints, a negative informational background, and bureaucratic barriers create significant obstacles to the full realization of Ukraine’s tourism potential in the European market, which necessitates the implementation of comprehensive measures aimed at adaptation to European standards of quality, safety, and sustainable tourism development.
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