DIGITAL COMMUNICATIONS AS A FACTOR IN THE TRANSFORMATION OF SECTORAL MARKETS: MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND STRUCTURAL SHIFTS
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Abstract
Introduction. The digital transformation of the economy has made digital communications a key driver of structural changes in industry markets. While their importance is widely recognized, systematic macroeconomic analysis of the impact of digital communications on value-added formation and structural shifts remains insufficiently developed. This study addresses this gap by providing a comprehensive analysis of the relationship between digital communications intensity and industry market transformation.
Purpose. The purpose of this study is to identify the macroeconomic impact of digital communications on the transformation of industry markets and structural shifts in the economy, to classify industries by their degree of dependence on digital communications, and to develop an econometric model for assessing the contribution of digital communications to gross value added formation across sectors.
Results. The analysis of panel data from 25 European countries and Ukraine for 2018-2024 reveals a stable positive relationship between digital communications intensity and the growth of high-tech sectors' share in GDP. The elasticity coefficient of industry share in GVA with respect to the digital communications index is 0.28 on average across the economy, ranging from 0.52 for the information and telecommunications sector to 0.08 for agriculture. A classification of industries by degree of dependence on digital communications is proposed: high-dependence industries (elasticity >0.35), medium-dependence industries (0.15-0.35), and low-dependence industries (<0.15). Structural shifts in the Ukrainian economy show a steady increase in the share of high-dependence industries (information and telecommunications grew by 36.8%, financial services by 28.1%, trade by 18.3%) and a reduction in low-dependence industries (industry declined by 13.5%, agriculture by 17.3%). Forecast estimates indicate that under an optimistic scenario, the share of high-dependence industries could reach 28-30% of GVA by 2030.
Originality. For the first time, this study provides a comprehensive macroeconomic analysis of the impact of digital communications on structural shifts in the Ukrainian economy using panel regression modeling with original data for 2018-2024. A novel classification of industries by degree of dependence on digital communications is proposed, based on calculated elasticity coefficients. An econometric model is developed that quantifies the contribution of digital communications to gross value added formation across different sectors, enabling evidence-based policy recommendations.
Conclusion. Digital communications are a significant factor in the transformation of industry markets and structural shifts in the economy. The uneven impact across sectors (elasticity ranges from 0.08 to 0.52) necessitates differentiated approaches to economic policy. The identified structural shifts in Ukraine's economy align with global trends but require active management to minimize negative social consequences. The proposed recommendations aim to help both government authorities and businesses adapt to ongoing structural transformations.
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