ANTI-CRISIS MANAGEMENT IN UKRAINE: APPROACHES TO ENSURING FINANCIAL STABILITY UNDER SYSTEMIC CHALLENGES
Main Article Content
Abstract
Introduction. The growing intensity of global economic, financial, and wartime challenges has increased the importance of improving crisis management mechanisms aimed at ensuring the financial resilience of the state and the timely identification of systemic risks.
Purpose. The purpose of the study is to examine the evolution of crisis management in Ukraine, assess the transformation of fiscal, monetary, banking, institutional, and socio-economic mechanisms for ensuring financial resilience, and substantiate the feasibility of applying modern financial crisis forecasting methods in public administration.
Methods. The study employs comparative, systemic, and structural-logical analysis, generalization, statistical analysis, econometric modeling, and financial time series analysis, including ARIMA and GARCH models, recurrence analysis, singular spectrum analysis, and modern machine learning algorithms.
Results. The findings demonstrate that Ukraine's crisis management system has evolved from a predominantly reactive approach to a preventive risk management model. The transformation of fiscal, monetary, banking, institutional, and socio-economic mechanisms during the crisis periods of 2008–2009, 2014–2016, and 2022–2024 is identified. The practical value of modern forecasting methods for the early detection of crisis phenomena and improving the effectiveness of public crisis management is substantiated.
Originality. The scientific novelty lies in the comprehensive generalization of the evolution of crisis management mechanisms in Ukraine and in substantiating the integration of modern econometric, nonlinear, and digital forecasting methods into the system for ensuring the state's financial resilience.
Conclusion. It is proved that combining traditional public crisis management instruments with modern financial risk forecasting methods enhances the effectiveness of managerial decision-making, supports the development of early warning systems, and strengthens Ukraine's financial resilience under systemic challenges.
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