FORESIGHT TECHNOLOGIES IN MANAGEMENT OF INSURANCE COMPANIES
Main Article Content
Abstract
Introduction. The article examines the opportunities and limitations of applying foresight technologies within the management system of insurance companies under conditions of digital transformation of the financial sector and increasing uncertainty in the risk environment. It is substantiated that classical approaches to strategic planning based on the extrapolation of retrospective indicators are insufficient for the insurance business, as the long-term nature of liabilities is combined with the nonlinear dynamics of macro-financial, regulatory, technological, and catastrophic risks. Based on the analysis of analytical materials of the National Bank of Ukraine, EIOPA recommendations on risk-based supervision and stress testing, as well as global assessments of Swiss Re Institute regarding the growth of catastrophic losses, the key drivers of uncertainty in insurers’ development are systematized, their interrelations are identified, and the necessity of transition to a scenario-oriented management logic is demonstrated.
The purpose of the article is to substantiate the theoretical and methodological principles of applying foresight technologies in the management of insurance companies and to develop recommendations for the formation of a scenario-oriented model of strategic management taking into account digital innovations and modern risks of the insurance market.
Results. A methodological design of the foresight process is proposed as an institutionalized managerial framework integrated with risk management and solvency assessment, combining strategic environmental scanning, expert validation of drivers, scenario modeling, and the transformation of results into strategic roadmaps. A scenario-based model for the development of an insurance company is developed, encompassing a baseline scenario of controlled adaptation, a technological scenario of digital breakthrough, a risk scenario of catastrophic volatility, and a regulatory scenario of enhanced supervision and harmonization. Their typical financial implications are demonstrated through the prism of the Loss Ratio, Combined Ratio, investment income, and capital requirements.
An applied roadmap for implementing foresight technologies is formulated, defining the analytical infrastructure, procedures of scenario testing, and mechanisms of continuous monitoring that ensure managerial adaptability in a digital environment. The practical significance of the results lies in the possibility of applying the proposed approaches to enhance financial resilience, improve risk profile management, and strengthen the innovative competitiveness of insurance companies in the medium and long term.
Conclusion. Thus, foresight technologies are not only a tool for strategic forecasting, but also a systemic mechanism for managing transformational processes in the insurance sector. In the long term, it is the scenario-oriented approach combined with digital analytics that will become a determining factor in ensuring the sustainability of insurance companies in the face of structural uncertainty and global digital transformation.
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