HUMAN CAPITAL AS AN ENDOGENOUS DETERMINANT OF MACROECONOMIC STABILITY OF THE NATIONAL ECONOMY IN THE CONDITIONS OF EXOGENIC SHOCK
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Abstract
Introduction. A critical analysis of macroeconomic dynamics in recent years indicates a change in dominants: physical capital (fixed assets) has demonstrated high vulnerability to physical destruction, while human capital has shown signs of “antifragility” – the ability to quickly adapt, relocate and generate added value even in the absence of stationary infrastructure.
A scientific contradiction arises between the objective necessity of using the potential of human capital to cushion external shocks and the lack of a coherent theoretical and methodological basis that would explain the transmission mechanism of the influence of human resource quality on the parameters of the state’s economic security.
The purpose of the article is to provide a theoretical and methodological justification of the functional role of human capital as a key endogenous factor of macroeconomic stability (resilience) of the national economy in conditions of uncertainty and permanent threats.
Results. The article conceptualizes human capital not as a growth resource, but as a fundamental factor of macroeconomic resilience (stability). Based on a comparative analysis of neoclassical and endogenous growth theories, the change in the functional role of education and qualifications in conditions of turbulence is substantiated. The impact of the population's mental health on its macroeconomic productivity is studied. A modified production function is developed taking into account the shock absorption parameter. The hypothesis is empirically confirmed using the example of the IT sector of Ukraine, which demonstrated antifragility during the war. The strategy of transition from the "social support" model to the "investment in resilience" model is substantiated. The transition to the "Human Capital First" concept is proposed: investment priority (expenditure on education and medicine should be classified not as social transfers, but as investments in national security); transition from the social protection model to the "active resilience" model; return policy, retention of migrants in the national economic space; tax incentives, introduction of a "super depreciation" regime for business expenses on training and mental health of employees; reform of the content of education, development of adaptability and critical thinking.
Conclusion. In modern conditions, human capital is transformed from a factor of extensive growth into a factor of intensive security. Its role is to cushion external shocks and ensure the adaptability of the economic system. The proposed mathematical model proves that the marginal efficiency of investments in preserving human capital during war is higher than investments in physical infrastructure, due to the lower vulnerability of the former to destruction and a higher multiplier effect. Empirical analysis of the Ukrainian economy confirmed theoretical calculations: sectors with a high concentration of human capital (IT, services) became the basis of economic stability in 2022-2023.
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